Who Wins The 2019 Election Final Countdown?

Bill Shorten, Chloe Shorten, Tony Burke, Scott Morrison

It’s the final week of Election 2019 and Labor is still in the best position to win the election. We’re not saying anything controversial here: Labor has been ahead in the polls for almost three years, the Liberal–National Party is divided and has been an omnishamble in government, and is lacking meaningful policy offerings to the public.

And if it’s not the polls, have a look at the betting markets: Labor is now paying Winx-like odds to win on Saturday night [and please, gamble responsibly; and vote responsibly too].

Of course, anything can still happen in this final week of the campaign. Will the Murdoch empire manufacture some kind of scandal that is just believable enough to throw Labor completely off balance? Bring it on Rupert, it probably won’t make too much difference. Using Bill Shorten’s mother to attack Bill Shorten was a low-road strategy, but we have to remember: when the conservatives can’t win fair, they use every tactic available to them, legal or not.

“Deserving” doesn’t have a part to play in politics. If election results were based on worthiness, the LNP would not win one seat: it has been that bad as a government, even worse than the 2011 version of the NSW Labor Party – that was bad but this is worse.

We still feel there’s a re-alignment that needs to take place for the conservatives, and a long stint in opposition for some time should give them enough time to sort out the difference between the moderates and the Christian right, and present a fresh alternative to the electorate.

Shock election results are quite rare in federal politics: the 2016 one-seat victory by Malcolm Turnbull was a surprise, but we have to go back to 1993 to find the last genuine boilover.

Will there be a boilover and sweet surprises for Scott Morrison on Saturday? Unlikely. It’s going to be a night for the red-shirts.

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